by Liam Nawara
As the COVID-19 Pandemic dominates the attention of the international news cycle and impacts the lives of billions of people around the world, it can be difficult to imagine what the world will look like once the pandemic subsides. The COVID-19 Pandemic has accelerated existing policy trends, changing the existing global structure of political, economic, and military alliances while making it easier to forecast the changes the world will face once the pandemic subsides. The COVID-19 Pandemic will hasten the post-2014 return to great power competition. Great power competition is the economic, political, cultural, and military rivalry between nations with global scope and influence. The world will split into polarized spheres of influence between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China. To gain crucial advantages in the coming era of great power competition, the United States will need to drive an economic, political, and military wedge between its sphere of influence and that of China’s.
The historical context explaining how the United States stands on the precipice of an era of great power competition in the 21st century has its roots at the end of the Cold War with the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the ensuing end of the Cold War in 1991, United States foreign and military policy was left abruptly aimless. With the bipolar politics of the Cold War suddenly a relic of the past, the United States found itself the world’s sole superpower. It appeared for a time that the eras of rivalry and conflict between developed nation-states would be left on the ash heap of history. Defense budgets around the world were cut and the United States military spent most of the 1990s fighting against rogue states or conducting peacekeeping operations.
Following the September 11th terror attacks in 2001, a return to great power competition appeared improbable with the primary focus of American military and foreign policy becoming the Global War on Terror. Simultaneously, the American hegemony that seemed certain following the Cold War no longer seemed guaranteed as the 2008 financial crisis, China’s rise, the resurgence of Russia, and international condemnation of the invasion of Iraq, eroded American influence. The 2014 invasion and occupation of Crimea by the Russian Federation startled policymakers in the West and once again brought great power competition to the forefront of their minds. Declining defense budgets reversed course as nations realized the threat of conflict with other nation-states had not yet disappeared.
Although Russia’s incursions in Eastern Europe were instrumental in awakening global policymakers to the resurgence of great power competition, Russia no longer had the capability to rival American hegemony. Falling oil prices and endemic corruption has left Russia with a declining economy smaller than that of Texas. Russia lacks the soft power needed to entice countries into its sphere of influence. With limited global reach, Russia’s influence will continue to decline until it is only able to assert itself over neighboring states in Central Asia and Eastern Europe.
The new rising global power is the People’s Republic of China. China saw itself rise to the top echelon of the global hierarchy propelled by its meteoric economic rise. China’s ascension was met with cautious praise for lifting millions out of poverty and appearing to be a responsible member of the international order. However, over the past decade, praise for China’s rise was replaced by criticism with countries raising concerns over human rights, freedom of information, trade policy, and abusive Chinese actions towards its neighbors. Increasing tensions between the United States and China over economic and trade disagreements have led to a continual deterioration of relations during the Trump Administration. These tensions led many to speculate on a return to great power competition between the United States and China even before the breakdown in Chinese-American relations during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The COVID-19 Pandemic is accelerating existing trends that were leading towards an era of great power competition between the United States and China. Tensions between the two countries were already rising before the pandemic over Chinese-American trade policy. The Chinese-American trade war was the culmination of years of American anger over Chinese intellectual property theft, unfair trade practices, and alleged Chinese currency manipulation. American objections to Chinese maritime claims that violate international law, Chinese cyber espionage, and predatory loans in the Belt and Road project further weakened relations. Then, the COVID-19 pandemic fractured already unstable US-Chinese relations.
The United States accused China of failing to both halt the spread of COVID-19 and punctually inform the world of the danger presented by COVID-19. The United States alleges that China’s lack of authoritarian lack of transparency led to a mishandling of the initial outbreak which prevented the early containment of COVID-19. The COVID-19 Pandemic represents a fundamental shift in US-China relations. The pandemic has accelerated the decoupling of the two nations diplomatically and economically. Now that the pandemic has ushered in a new era of great power competition, the United States must develop a grand strategy to succeed in great power competition against China. The United States’ strategy against China must strengthen existing alliances, decouple the American economy from China, and optimize the military for combat against a peer adversary.
A fundamental component of the United States’ strategy to succeed in this new era of great power competition must be the strengthening of existing and new alliances. Alliances are critical to American military, economic, and political success in great power competition. Without its allies, American power is diminished. America’s allies provide an economic advantage crucial to any decoupling from China. By pursuing American allies as favored trade partners, the United States can decouple its economy from China. Crucial alliances in the Pacific such as those with the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, and Australia increase the United States’ military power. The COVID-19 Pandemic presents several opportunities for the United States to strengthen its existing alliances and foster new ones as well.
Taiwan is one country that appears poised to gain global influence following the COVID-19 pandemic and is a prime candidate to become an ally of the United States in the new era of great power competition. A self-ruling island with a democratic government that China claims is a wayward province, China has been politically isolating Taiwan from the world over the last several decades. Taiwan only maintains diplomatic relations with fourteen countries. The United States does not maintain official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, however, the United States does “enjoy a robust unofficial relationship” with Taiwan, and the maintenance of “strong, unofficial relations is a major US goal”. Despite its disadvantaged diplomatic position, the COVID-19 pandemic allows Taiwan to assert itself on the diplomatic stage. By supporting Taiwan’s attempts to grow its international standing, the United States will be better poised to gain a strategically located ally in the Pacific.
Taiwan has been able to weather initial outbreaks of COVID-19 quite successfully even though it is geographically close to China, the initial epicenter of the pandemic. Through the use of extensive testing, contact tracing, and innovative use of digital technologies, Taiwan has only had several hundred COVID-19 cases and few deaths. Taiwan has followed up its successful response to the COVID-19 pandemic by furthering its foreign policy agenda. Taiwan has offered its expertise and medical aid to many countries around the world as it seeks to increase its global standing. This global charm offensive appears to be working with the Netherlands changing the name of its unofficial diplomatic post in Taiwan from the Netherlands Trade and Investment Office to the Netherlands Office Taipei. Furthermore, the United States and other countries have called for Taiwan to be granted observer status in the World Health Organization. These growing calls for Taiwanese recognition on a global scale make Taiwan a strong candidate for the US to increase its relations with. Taiwan could be a strong economic, military, and political ally for the US in the Pacific.
While developing new relationships and affirming current ties with traditional allies such as NATO and European Union member states, the United States must also embark on a campaign of global engagement to gain international political influence. The value of American engagement in the global political system has been made clear through the current administration’s decision to withdraw support for the World Health Organization and general contempt for bodies like the United Nations. President Trump’s decision to halt American funding to the WHO appears reasonable upon a cursory examination. However, this decision cedes greater influence to China. While China certainly should face international condemnation for its initial lack of transparency, withdrawing American engagement in the WHO reduces the United State’s ability to condemn China and gather the support of allies to act on this lack of transparency. The current administration’s lack of engagement with global decision-making bodies reveals that the United States must politically engage with the world to prevent China from gaining influence in international political bodies.
The maintenance of alliances improves American military posture as well, containing Chinese military influence within the first island chain stretching from Japan to the Philippines. With military budget cuts on the horizon for the United States, the value of the mutual defense treaties with South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines increases. The current administration’s demands that Japan and South Korea need pay to cover the cost of hosting American military bases must be dropped. These bases allow the United States to surround China along the first Pacific island chain. The military forces and bases of American allies provides a capable force multiplier for American military power. Without these bases and the additional forces that American allies provide, the United States will be left at a sore disadvantage to Chinese military power. Weak American military power in the Pacific would prevent the United States from challenging China’s maritime claims that violate international law, and the sovereignty of smaller Pacific nations. China will believe that the United States does not have the political will to defend its allies if it fails to demonstrate a willingness to cooperate with its allies. A lack of American will makes aggressive military action an enticing option to China.
Finally, the United States must drive an economic wedge between itself and China to gain a crucial advantage in the new era of great power competition. The COVID-19 Pandemic has revealed the fragility of the complex international supply chains that have been created over the last few decades. The fragility of these supply chains in the face of a major global crisis reveals a need for the United States to decouple its economy from China. The initial steps of this decoupling have already taken place. The Chinese-American trade war has placed tariffs on many goods and when combined with the rising costs of labor in China, it may become profitable for many industries to move to the United States or friendly nations such as Taiwan or Vietnam. Additionally, the United States has worked to prevent Huawei, a Chinese company, from entering global 5G networks with export bans on key components Huawei needs for its products. International concerns over Huawei’s connections to Chinese intelligence show that these actions are warranted. Emulating these actions against other Chinese companies in strategic markets will help the United States drive an economic wedge between itself, its allies, and China. By increasing tariffs on China, preventing Chinese companies from accessing strategic markets, and creating favorable trade agreements that incentivize private enterprises to move their business out of China to allied countries, the United States will increase its sphere of influence. Furthermore, it will isolate itself from shocks to supply chains in international crises while benefiting its economy and isolating China from international trade.
The COVID-19 Pandemic will change the course of the 21st century. The acceleration of existing trends has once again set the world on the path to great power competition. This new era of great power competition between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China will challenge American policymakers for decades to come. The United States must strive to succeed in this new era and avoid at all costs its decline as the world’s leading superpower. However, this success will only be achievable if the United States drives economic, political, and military wedges between itself and the People’s Republic of China.
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