by Julia Wong
As the unprecedented Coronavirus, or COVID-19, has ravaged nations like China, Italy, and the United States, it is imperative that the world addresses a looming problem: developing nations’ exposure to the pandemic.
As of April 29, 88% of newly tested and confirmed coronavirus cases were within OECD-qualifying wealthy nations, yet this number simply calls for more alarm. As the virus moves into the southern hemisphere, Mumbai, Rio de Janeiro, and Monrovia are predicted to be the next greatest targets, alongside their less wealthy rural counterparts both in Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. Their relative security and low numbers so far simply indicate a delay in the full onset of the epidemic, one that cannot be afforded as developed nations’ economies and governments are forced to address the virus within their borders and deny aid that may have been provided in less pressing times. Developing nations are undoubtedly going to be hit the worst by COVID-19: and here’s why.
In terms of a widespread pandemic, developing nations face two drastic and deadly shortcomings. The first is unstable and/or suffering economies, and the second inadequate healthcare. During a widespread disease that requires social distancing, quarantine, and extreme government action, the two inevitably become intertwined, causing great stress for countries that lack the resources to compensate on either end.
Many nations simply cannot afford to put their economy on hold for preventative measures. 44 billion USD in debt by developing African nations is due in 2020, and even with the current assistance by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank combined, it is unlikely any nation will be able to sustain the severe economic toll of COVID-19 without long-term impacts. Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and many more are already expected to suffer what might possibly be their greatest ever economic decline, and for families working below the poverty line living by paycheck, social distancing can mean starvation. This is only exacerbated by the fact that many work in the informal sector, meaning no unemployment or sickness benefits as common in developed countries. As we have seen in the United States, even with over 2.2 trillion USD in rescue programs and subsidies, the economic backlash has endangered the livelihoods of many, raising the question of how already economically-challenged nations without such funding will suffer with lockdowns and when the virus inevitably hits. With a high number of citizens in poverty or just above, many developing nations struggle with the decision to maintain distancing in order to prevent corona from entering or spreading, while easing lockdowns inevitably leads to spikes in cases and overwhelmed hospitals with limited beds and respirators.
Thus, not only will these nations' economies suffer, but the entrance and severity of the epidemic within their borders are almost certain, the only question left being when. This brings us to the second greatest deficit developing countries face: underfunded and inadequate healthcare. In Uganda, there are only 55 intensive care beds in the entire nation, while Malawi’s total to 1,100 ICU for its 160 million citizens. For reference, the state of Massachusetts alone currently has approximately 4,848 intensive care beds and is still several thousand short of those needed. Ten nations have absolutely no respirators. Funding for healthcare is spread thin, as nations already cut into other areas such as HIV, malaria, and cholera treatment programs. Countries including Haiti and Venezuela with already-struggling health systems simply neither have the funds nor structures to deal with the scale of the epidemic. Combined, the battle between economy and health leaves nations without a strong system in place for either at high risk as Corona becomes an imminent threat in their respective regions.
Lebanon currently stands as an example of such issues: after a month-long lockdown resulted in tens of thousands being thrown into poverty, the IMF projected Lebanon’s economy to shrink an entire 12% in 2020, resulting in popular pressure to loosen restrictions. Yet, if the lockdown is lifted, the healthcare system will be unequipped to deal with the inevitable fallout, leaving the government and people without any viable solution.
Similarly, many developing nations face individualized dilemmas. The President of Brazil has been cited calling the outbreak a “fantasy” and refuses to shut down the economy when forced to balance between the two. In stark contrast, Kenya has implemented a dawn-to-dusk curfew, resulting in severe economic and societal repercussions as those who violate the lockdown face tear gas, beatings, and other human rights violations. Yemen, Libya, and Syria all struggle to account for the scope of the outbreak due to a lack of testing and medical professionals after years of humanitarian disasters. India, though a BRIC nation, is still developing and being densely populated has addressed the incoming virus in a strict manner, banning the exportation of goods such as ventilators, surgical masks, and the anti-malaria drug, helpful in maintaining supplies but highly detrimental to the developing nations relying on such exports.
Even now, despite relatively consistent food production, importation and supply chain difficulties have resulted in food shortages, foreshadowing a plummet similar to the 12% in Western Africa during the Ebola crisis.
Without the economic and health care capacities of wealthier nations, developing countries now face an incoming crisis, one which they are both unequipped and lacking the aid to handle. It is imperative at this time that we recognize, especially due to the implications of globalization, that the effect our economy has had on developing nations is not a one-way street. It is easy to turn towards more isolationist policies in times of difficulty, but it is more important now than ever that developed nations step up and ensure the safety of all, not just those within their borders. As the most at-risk are next to be hit, it is imperative to remain united, not just as a country but a world facing a shared pandemic.
Comments